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The Top 5 Factors to Predict Sales Turnover

  
  
  

Dave Kurlan is a top-rated speaker, best-selling author, sales thought leader and highly regarded sales development expert.

Yesterday, I began a discussion about sales longevity or, if you prefer, turnover.  What are the factors that lead to turnover and how much of that can be predicted?  Start with yesterday's article on How Long Will a Salesperson Stick?

Get ready for a discussion that is backed by data - more Science of Sales Force Management stuff!  Speaking of science, my guest on this week's episode of Meet the Sales Experts, Lee Levitt, had a lot to say about Pipeline Coverage and Shape, metrics and 5 powerful tips for Sales Force Effectiveness.  Click here to listen to the show.

Salesperson Longevity - What Did We Find?

I mined the data and it wasn't easy!  Some of the factors I expected to see just didn't materialize. For example, I assumed that money motivation would make a difference.  Wrong.  Not even a tiny difference. A money motivated salesperson is not even 1% more likely to stick than one who isn't motivated by money.  I assumed that salespeople who were paid mostly on salary might tend to stick around longer than their colleagues who were paid mostly by commission.  Wrong.  I thought that there was a chance that stronger salespeople stuck around longer than weaker salespeople.  Wrong again.

So what did I learn?  Here are the Top Five Factors to Predict Sales Turnover / Longevity

The most important factor in predicting sales longevity is --- EXPERIENCE!  Salespeople with at least 5 years of sales experience are far more likely to stick than those without 5 years of experience.

Factor #2 has little to do with the salesperson but everything to do with Sales Longevity.  It's how closely sales management will manage the salesperson.  Salespeople who were not closely managed simply didn't stick around as long.  I had to draw a conclusion relative to whether the turnover was voluntary or involuntary. I concluded that salespeople who were more or less ignored and also under performing likely reached a point where the company gave up and terminated them. I also concluded that salespeople who performed but were ignored probably left on their own.  But whether or not you agree with my conclusions, don't miss the bigger point.  Closely managing your salespeople leads to sales longevity in your company.

Factor #3 is the compensation plan.  Salespeople who are compensated mostly by commission are more likely to stick than salespeople who are compensated mostly by salary.  Why? Salaried salespeople and those with limited bonus opportunities, reach a point where they need more money.  Does this contradict the money motivation finding?  No.  This is need versus want.  They'll leave when they need more money.  Money motivated salespeople simply want more money and sell more to earn it.

Factor #4 is a reverse factor finding.  Huh?  Objective Management Group (OMG) has a powerful finding called the Figure it Out Factor or FIOF.  It's a score that accurately predicts how quickly a new salesperson will ramp up in their new positions.  A score of greater than 75 identifies candidates in this group.  Well, these same salespeople, the ones who will ramp up more quickly, are LESS likely to stick!  Yes, they'll have an immediate impact, but they will tend to not have sales longevity in your company.  Salespeople with low FIOF scores are the ones who are most likely to stick.  Slow starters, big finishers!

Factor #5 is another reverse factor finding.  OMG has another score called Sales Quotient (SQ) which allows companies to rank their hirable candidates. Strong salespeople have SQ's over 135 and the elite have scores over 145.  But these real strong salespeople - A Players - aren't the ones who are most likely to stick.  Rather, salespeople with SQ's between 110 and 130 - B Players - have the greatest sales longevity.

Summary:The good news is that there are five specific factors that allow us to predict sales longevity.  The bad news is that these factors are inconsistent with the factors that allow us to identify and predict who the top performers will be.  So it raises a new question.  Should you be striving to hire A Players - those with high Sales Quotient and Ramp up Scores or should you be hiring for Sales Longevity - B Players who will stick around longer?

Verne Harnish, the Growth Guy, and I had this very discussion  over email this morning.  He said, "small companies can do both".  He said that "entrepreneurial firms should go after experience - we don't have time to ramp up someone - let the big companies train!" He also said that "companies should go for A players with more than 5 years of experience", something that  both Neil Rackham (SPIN Selling and Rethinking the Sales Force) and Brad and Geoff Smart, (Topgrading) have been saying right along.  However, our data shows that only 16% of the A players with experience stick for more than two years. And that brings us back to the original question. 

What do you think - A's or Longevity?  Should the answer be a direct relation to the length of your sales cycle?  Should you go for longevity when you have a long sales cycle and for A's when you have a short sales cycle? We're interested in what you have to say!



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Posted by Dave Kurlan on Fri, Mar 05, 2010 @ 04:27 AM

COMMENTS

Great research, Dave. This is insightful information for leaders committed to building a successful long-term sales strategy.

posted on Friday, March 05, 2010 at 8:52 AM by Danita Bye


Hi Dave, 
Fascinating findings and it goes hand in hand with something I have noticed in an adhoc way. 
Lots of salespeople move around the 2 year point and those same salespeople claim to overperform their targets. I have always been cynical about that link. You seem to be backing it up with data. And that is something to go out and sell.

posted on Friday, March 05, 2010 at 8:57 AM by John Hill


Great work (again), Dave! 
 
This has the similarities of investment planning. Should I invest for high yield / high risk or for solid but lower returns? Perhaps a sales organization would staff with a mix of both.

posted on Friday, March 05, 2010 at 10:22 AM by Jim Sasena


Great research! Great info. I kept coming back to Factor #2. If I want "A" players and hire them, I better have the right management team that manages properly or I loose them. No matter what size company getting the best on the team and keeping them is of utmost importance. Time maybe to start changing management and making sure your managers are "A" players. The work on having a total "A" team and understanding that replacing the non performers "A's" or not is an on going process. Even an "A" who is managed well may get comfortable.

posted on Friday, March 05, 2010 at 10:27 AM by Ed Kleinman


Dave  
 
I have anecdotal evidence to support the finding.I have a client in Silicon Valley who has a hiring criteria that the salesperson can have no mor than three jobs in the last 10 years. they are also looking for a senior level salesperson. I am only interviewing thos who come up with a hirable finding and they typically have a SQ of 130 or higher. I have talked to 35 people and no one has had less than 4 jobs in the last 10 years. At least now I have an idea why this recruiting project has been so tough.  
 
 
 
I was wondering how many of those who claim to closely manage the salesperson and had them leave managed the salesperson correctly. they might have managed them closely but focused on the wrong things and thereby caused a good salesperson to leave because he/she could not tolerate the intrusion of somewone who was not helping. Knowing sales managers as I do, i think this has a high probability of being the case.  
 
<www.optimalsalesperson.com>

posted on Friday, March 05, 2010 at 4:00 PM by Dan Caramanico


The word balance springs to mind, not compromise, relative to the sales cycle and what your sales goals targets are. In any team, the Exec Team for example, you need a balance of skills as indeed the Key Management Dynamics will show you whether there is a good spread or not of skills. It further highlights the need for us to ask even more pertinent questions of our clients and to impress on them that an effective sales team and the recruitment thereof is an incisive process not something you can "put together on the back of a cigarette packet". Let me pose a question to Dave. Should this make a case for a few more questions to be added to the Express Screen?

posted on Friday, March 05, 2010 at 8:32 PM by Ray Bigger


Thank you Danita. 
 
Thank you John. 
 
@Jim - I love the comparison to investments - it's a perfect analogy! 
 
@Dan - you may have have the wild card in your hand! Since all of data we have is recorded PRIOR to to the point in time when a sales development expert begins to work with their sales manager(s). 
 
@Ray - good points and yes, as always, in order to predict something new, we need more questions! 
 
@Ed - great strategy - even when not expressed as a concern by the client, one of the questions we must ask is "what is your strategy for retaining your A players?" This assumes, of course, that they have one or more A Players...

posted on Saturday, March 06, 2010 at 5:16 AM by Dave Kurlan


As an A player for hire, this upsets me. Shouldn't the concluding statement be how do we continue to challenge the A players beyond their ramp? How do we "closely manage" reps to a level of comfort? Excetera?

posted on Saturday, March 06, 2010 at 8:26 AM by Shannon


@Shannon - Great to hear from an A player - there aren't that many of you out there! You are correct. We should be identifying ways to retain people like you.

posted on Monday, March 08, 2010 at 8:55 AM by Dave Kurlan


My thoughts on this is top performers drive/challenge themselves to constantly do better. They like the challenge of ramping, or else they wouldn’t grab it by the horns and overcome that mountain so quickly. They grow by figuring out their own weaknesses and continually striving to overcome them. So the question is how to keep them challenged, and how to help them realize their weaknesses on their own. How to keep them moving in a career path, vs. keeping them stagnant… My other thought is if you don’t position yourself as this kind of company, you probably won’t be as attractive to an A type sales rep. 
 
 
 
Most A types love to be constantly learning, so you need to give them a learning environment. Maybe your product set isn’t constantly evolving, so it’s hard to challenge them in product learning. But you can put them in a challenging position that gives them some room to fail. Fact is it’s this failure that helps them realize their weakness and become receptive to engaging the help they need to overcome them. They may receive your direct feedback as micromanaging, until they realize they need the feedback, and then they will ask for it. 
 
 
 
I had an interview in which the department or company heads were having their sales reps interview their candidates. What a great display of how a company can increase the job duties/challenge they offer their good reps. What a great display of how a company can continue to career path their reps vs. just have them do 100 cold calls a day for a demanded “12-18 months.” Fact is they might be ready to add value in another area before 12 months, and it would be a win win for you to realize and nurture that vs. lose that A type/self driven work ethic.  
 
 
 
One of my favorite quotes is from Zig Ziglar, “If you have enough push, you don’t have to worry about the pull.” This is how the A performers work, and this is how you work with them. Figure out how to keep them pushing instead of pulling them… You can simply ask them to tell you how to keep them pushed as well. 
 

posted on Monday, March 08, 2010 at 1:16 PM by Shannon


Love the research Dave! What do you think of hiring people with less than 5 years sales experience but high figure it out factors (along with strong crucial elements and lack of the 5 major weaknesses of course) to balance out long term performance...at least longer than 2 years?

posted on Tuesday, March 30, 2010 at 1:31 PM by Al Rosenbaum


@Al, I'm good with less than 5 years of experience!

posted on Tuesday, March 30, 2010 at 3:36 PM by Dave Kurlan


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