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Understanding the Sales Force

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Does Moneyball Work for the Sales Force?

  
  
  

Dave Kurlan is a top-rated speaker, best-selling author, sales thought leader and highly regarded sales development expert.

moneyball.coverThe movie was great - much more drama than the book - but the book contained many more insights about the revolutionary new way to see performance through statistics.  More on that in a minute...

Billy Beane, the Oakland Athletics GM who was featured in Moneyball, shook up his team during its 2002 slump by turning off the music (with a baseball bat), putting a stop to the fun, knocking over some tables and saying, "THIS is what losing is supposed to sound like!"  Later the same day he traded and released players and put his manager on notice that he must play the team that was assembled for him.  That Oakland team then proceeded to set a major league record by winning their next 20 games.

Compare Billy Beane's managerial style with that of the Boston Red Sox' GM Theo Epstein, whose team has been mired in a month long slump that caused their 9-game lead shrink to as little as 1/2 a game [Update - the lead was eliminated on 9-27-11 when the Red Sox lost again and Tampa Bay tied them for the playoff spot]. This slump was much worse than the A's of nine years ago, who weren't expected to contend.  What did Theo do to shake up his team?  Nothing.  How did the team respond?  They continued to lose!

Back to Moneyball.

The basic concept of Moneyball was to find a way to win with undervalued players so that a small market team with a comparitively tiny payroll could compete with the enormous payrolls of the Yankees and Red Sox.  They identified how many wins were required to make the playoffs, how many runs they would have to score for the season, and what it really took to score runs.  They agreed that On Base Percentage (OBP) would be the primary criteria for the Oakland team and identified players who reached base often but were overlooked and/or underrated by other teams.

If we apply the concept of Moneyball to the Sales Force we must identify what constitutes a sales Win.  If your top salesperson sells $1.5 million to the same 8 accounts each year it is important revenue, but is that salesperson really delivering any wins?  If another salesperson brings in 8 new accounts worth $750,000, could that possibly constitute 8 wins?  

It's funny - the way those statisticians arrived at the new baseball statistics are similar to the old sales metrics we used where we calculated the number of attempts, conversations, first meetings, presentations, and proposals required to close 1 deal.  But those metrics are not enough anymore and attempts and conversations are no longer the default method for how sales opportunities come to be.

What if we included the following new KPI's as the Sales Force's version of Moneyball?

NFM - The percentage of first meetings that are new (new customers, new opportunities with existing customers, or a new group or division of an existing customer)
Traction - The percentage of first meetings that progress from Suspect to Prospect
Quality - The percentage of opportunities that progress from Prospect to Qualified
Effectiveness - The percentage of opportunities that progress from Qualified to Closable
Run Efficiency - The percentage of First Meetings (Suspects) that Close 
Wins - Closed Deals from New Opportunities
DAIM - Deals Closed at Ideal Margin or Better 

It would seem to me that salespeople who deliver more Wins, have a higher NFM, and a better DAIM would be far more valuable to have on your sales force.  What do you think?



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Posted by Dave Kurlan on Sun, Sep 25, 2011 @ 10:05 PM

COMMENTS

Dave 
 
If you don't measure it you can't fix it.  
 
If you don't track it How dc you know if it's broken? 
 

posted on Monday, September 26, 2011 at 5:45 AM by Dan Caramanico


Dave, 
 
Great analogy!! Lets take it a bit deeper. The fundamental statistical principle that was used by Beane to determine what variables led to runs scored is explained here:  
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_regression 
 
Following this principle, there are other variables that need to be tracked in order to establish the most effective sales model/process. Assuming that there is enough data (volume) in the pipeline, these variables can to be added into the equation: vertical market, level in which the call was initiated, source of the opportunity, size of the deal, length of time in the pipeline, pricing, time of year initiated, geography, etc. I bet that there are more that can be used. I cannot wait to try this here.  
 
This may sound like a lot, but its not. Just track this data in Excel and once you have enough data points, run the regression.

posted on Monday, September 26, 2011 at 6:49 AM by Karl Scheible


Winning teams of Clients can stop growth. 
 
Well established alespeople (often business owners) can often develop a comfort level of existing customers. The problem is that they are the best sale people you have and now they are not bringing in new clients and if they loose one or two they hate starting over. 
 
I have seen many companies change this with added incentives to bring in new accounts. 
 
Hiring a salesperson a great assistant is a good idea. It is a great training ground for the new sales person too. 
 
What do you think? 
 
SCORE.org 
Re-building America—One Business at a Time

posted on Monday, September 26, 2011 at 7:08 AM by Barry Rickert


@Dan - agreed!

posted on Monday, September 26, 2011 at 8:02 AM by Dave Kurlan


@Karl - love your detail. Sales Force KPI's should definitely include a factor for deal size being in the target range while your other variables will help companies hone their sweet spots.

posted on Monday, September 26, 2011 at 8:05 AM by Dave Kurlan


@Barry - incentives help - but only when the incentives are tied to the changes in behavior that we want to see. Assistants are helpful when salespeople are blaming administrative workloads for their lack of performance. Take away the excuses!

posted on Monday, September 26, 2011 at 8:07 AM by Dave Kurlan


Dave, 
 
It's a popular analogy. After reading the book in 2003, I went searching for numerical approaches to the sales profession, and came across the book "The Dolphin and the Cow" by the YPS Group. (http://ypsgroup.com/dolphinandcow.html). I also discovered "The Science of Sales Success" (http://www.amazon.com/Science-Sales-Success-High-Profit-Repeatable/dp/0814471927).  
 
The challenge to implementing these kinds of processes (including yours) is the resistance to change above and below (management and rankandfile).  
 
What Sabremetrics and its followers have going is over a hundred years of statistics. The sales profession lacks generally accepted baseline measurements. Every organization does it differently.

posted on Monday, September 26, 2011 at 8:13 AM by Brian Berlin


@Brian - I agree about resistance to change; but only among organizations that chroncially under perform and won't be asking anyone from the outside for help. The companies that we help will eat this stuff up. 
 
We really don't need 100 years of baseline statistics to cause change. As long as we can agree on what's truly important to growth, then we can isolate it, measure it, track it and cause change.

posted on Monday, September 26, 2011 at 8:19 AM by Dave Kurlan


Dave, 
 
Great post, it really made me think about how this approach would support the coaching we do if implemented. If any company rewarded its sales people partly with objectives then this is the solution 
 
 
 
Jonathan

posted on Monday, September 26, 2011 at 9:07 AM by Jonathan Hebbes


@Jonathan - exactly - tie the KPI's to compensation so that you're rewarding the right people for doing the right things!

posted on Monday, September 26, 2011 at 9:55 AM by Dave Kurlan


I think this may be my favorite post yet from you Dave.  
 
@Karl- I wish there was a link that I could learn more from you. But thank you for the reference. 
@Brian-I agree resistance to change is something that can be quantified. I'm glad I'm learning how to pinpoint that within a couple of conversations. 
The one thing I see as missing from this conversation is how to align those metrics with online marketing metrics.  
Just as marketing metrics have changed with the Internet, sales metrics are changing as a result of inbound leads. Wouldn't it be great if we both used the same standard metrics?  
I tease of course.

posted on Tuesday, September 27, 2011 at 10:55 AM by Carole Mahoney


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